Sports Betting Tips

Free football tips, free betting tips

Unconditional, Conditional and Joint Probability in Betting

In order to become a successful bettor, you must master the betting probability. We will break this difficult terminology into a more easy to grasp language so you can better understand this concept. Before proceeding, you must be aware of the difference between probabilities and odds. To explain this, let’s consider a game of dice where the person who gets the face 1 wins the game. So the probability of winning is 1/6 and of losing 5/6. The odds of winning are 1 to 5, meaning that the probability of losing is five times the probability of winning. Probabilities describe the frequency of a possible result, while the odds compare favorable to unfavorable outcomes.

Unconditional betting probability

Unconditional probability refers to the probability that an event will occur without being conditioned by external circumstances. This probability is is not based on previous results, it is the independent chance that an outcome will result from a sample of other possible outcomes. In order to find the unconditional probability of an event, you must divide the instances of a definite outcome by the total numbers of events. Unconditional probability can help you find out the likelihood of an event, even if you are now aware of other specific external conditions. For example, if you want to find out what is the probability of a die to land on number 5, 15 times out of 60, you will use the following formula: 15 outcomes /60 total lots = 0.25. This means that there is a 25% probability for the die to land on the number 5. You can use this in betting if you consider the probability that your favorite team will win a match to be A, written as P(A).

Conditional betting probability

Conditional probability is the probability that an event will occur when another event occurred or will occur in the future. This is known as the probability of A given B, where A and B are the events. The formula is denoted P(A|B), or PB(A). P(A|B) may or may not be equal to P(A), the probability of the first event. If they are equal, they are considered independent. For example, if you make a bet that your favorite team will win three games in a row, in order for the second win to occur, they must win the first match and the same goes for the third bet. This means that the bets are conditional.

Joint probability

This type of probability refers to the likelihood of two or more events happening together. The formula is denoted as P(AB), where A and B are the events occurring at the same time. In betting, you are dealing with an accumulator parlay bet. Let’s assume that you want to bet on three possible outcomes: the Lakers to win in the NBA, Barcelona to win against Real Madrid and Greece to get more points than Sweden in an Eurovision contest. This will be denoted as P of (Lakers win and Barcelona win and Greece win).

You must be logged in to post a comment.